Wednesday, November 21, 2012

A projection on how much each ship will cost in Star Citizen

The following is my projection on how much each ship will cost in Star Citizen based on a few facts and some assumptions.

Facts:
1. Ship insurance is going to be offered on a monthly basis and by definition, each ship needs to have its own insurance.
2. A basic monthly subscription at Centurion level starts at $10/mth.

Assumptions:
1. Ship insurance is going to be the main revenue source for the game
2. $1 in real life money = 1000 credits
3. To 'play' the game, players will need to be flying a ship which is insured.
4. The game will forbid players from flying ships which are not insured.
5. If a ship's current monthly insurance runs out, you will need to buy another monthly insurance for it.
6. Ship insurance is offered in multiples of 30 days, eg 30/60/90/120 days
7. Ship insurance needs to be relatively cheap, less than or equal to credits worth $15/mth = 15,000 credits/mth, based on prevailing standard MMO subscription rates of $15/mth.

Estimating the costs of each ship in in-game credits

Aurora
Looking at the Digital Scout package, it gives you an Aurora ship with 1000 credits and 2 months ship insurance, at a cost of $30. Based on a subscription model of $10/mth. 2 months ship insurance would be worth 2x$10 = $20. Why? Because I can fly the ship for 2 months, effectively allowing me to play the game for 2 months in that ship, equivalent to a Centurion level subscription for 2 months.
This would mean that the basic Aurora ship costs:
$30 (Digital scout package) - $20 (ship insurance) = $10 = 10,000 credits (assuming $1=1000 credits)

300i
Digital Bounty Hunter package gives you a 300i ship, 2000 credits, 4 months ship insurance, at a cost of $65.
This means the basic 300i ship (ignoring the 2k credits) costs:
$65 - $40 = $25 = 25,000 credits.

Hornet
Digital Colonel package gives a Hornet ship, 5000 credits, 6 months ship insurance, at a cost of $125.
This means the basic Hornet ship (ignoring the 5k credits) costs:
$125 - $60 = $65 = 65,000 credits.

Freelancer
Digital Freelancer package gives Freelancer ship, 5000 credits, 6 months ship insurance, at a cost of $125.
This means the basic Freelancer ship (ignoring the 5k credits) costs:
$125 - $60 = $65 = 65,000 credits.

Constellation
No digital package to compare with, so we look at the Rear Admiral package, which gives 10k credits, 6 months ship insurance.
This means the basic Constellation ship (ignoring the 10k credits) costs:
$275 - $60 - $15(shipping costs) = $200 = 200,000 credits.


Estimating the Real-Life money cost of lifetime insurance for digital add-on ships

Now, we know that pledge ships are also available as digital add-ons for people who pledged during the crowd-funding campaign. Working backwards with the data from above to find how much lifetime ship insurance for each ship is worth, we have:

Constellation: Available for $225 as digital add-on
In-game ship value: $200 = 200,000 credits
Hence estimated lifetime insurance = $225 - $200 = $25 = 25,000 credits

Freelancer: Available for $110 as digital add-on
In-game ship value: $65 = 65,000 credits
Hence estimated lifetime insurance = $110 - $65 = $45 = 45,000 credits

Hornet: Available for $110 as digital add-on
In-game ship value: $65 = 65,000 credits
Hence estimated lifetime insurance = $110 - $65 = $45 = 45,000 credits

300i: Available for $55 as digital add-on
In-game ship value: $25 = 25,000 credits
Hence estimated lifetime insurance = $55 - $25 = $30 = 30,000 credits

Aurora: Available for $25 as digital add-on
In-game ship value: $10 = 10,000 credits
Hence estimated lifetime insurance = $25 - $10 = 15,000 credits

These values can be used in estimating the costs of each limited-add-on ship for the digital add-on tiers below.

We will use the estimated lifetime insurance of $25 for the Constellation to find out the in-game costs for the limited-time-pledge ships below.

Estimating the costs of each ship in in-game credits (Continued)

Anvil Gladiator Bomber $150
*Estimated value in-game: $150 - $25 = $125 = 125,000 credits

ORIGIN M50 Interceptor $80
*Estimated value in-game: $80 - $25 = $55 = 55,000 credits

Starfarer Tanker $175
*Estimated value in-game: $175 - $25 = $150 = 150,000 credits

Drake Caterpillar Transport $225
*Estimated value in-game: $225 - $25 = $200 = 200,000 credits

Drake Cutlass (The Pirate Pack) $100
*Estimated value in-game: $100 - $25 = $75 = 75,000 credits

Retaliator Heavy Bomber $250
*Estimated value in-game: $250 - $25 = $225 = 225,000 credits

Idris corvette: Available for $1,000 as digital add-on
*Estimated value in-game: $1000 - $25 = $975 = 975,000 credits
Alternative estimate:
Assuming lifetime insurance to be equal to 1 year of ship insurance (modeling this after DCUO where a lifetime subscription cost $200, at a monthly sub of $15/mth. Break-even point occurs at 13.3 months)
12 months ship insurance = $120
$1000 - $120 = $880
An Idris corvette will cost 880,000 credits.

Vanduul fighter: Available for $300 as digital add-on
*Estimated value in-game: $300 - $25 = $275 = 275,000 credits
Alternative estimate:
Assuming lifetime insurance equal to 12 months worth of ship insurance,
$300 - $120 - $180
A Vanduul fighter is worth $180, placing its ship value between a Hornet/Freelancer and a Constellation

Notes:
* Based on an estimated lifetime insurance worth $25 = 25,000 credits

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Ya dood.